The July 31, 2020, month-end performance estimate for the Horse Cove Partners Absolute Return Strategy was a gain of 2.05% net of fees1. Since the December 2010 inception of trading, the Strategy has achieved a total cumulative return of +203.34% net of fees.
Market Recap and Commentary
S&P 500 Total Return Index gained 5.64% in the month of July and the Index had its best quarterly gains since 1989.
The FED’S “money printer” goes brrrrrrrrr……and global governments continue their spending spree. The assets on the balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve have grown to over $7 trillion dollars. That is up 75% in 5 months from $4 trillion in February 2020. Both tech and financial equities continue to absorb that cash and carry the market higher. Most of the gains are on the backs of only a handful of companies. According to Gary Shilling:
“The S&P 500 is up 0.5% for the year thanks to the strength of those five companies, but the other 495 members are down about 5% on average on a market cap-weighted basis. Still, that 5% decline pales in comparison to the earlier 35% plunge in the S&P 500. Goldman Sachs calculates that if those five tech stocks were to fall 10%, the bottom 100 in the S&P 500 would need to jump 90% to offset the decline.”
He is referring to Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google. Typically, when growth in a large diverse index like the S&P 500 is concentrated in only a few names, it does not end well. Most of these companies are under pressure from Washington and Europe for anti-competitive practices and they are not cheap.
There is no way to predict what the market will do or when it will do it. We are at the whims of Robinhood traders, algorithmic traders, banks with too much cash, and all those fearful of missing any part of this rally. The S&P 500 is trading in a well-defined channel that may very well continue into the election, barring any unforeseen developments with COVID. We expect that more clarity on who will be the next president will lead to a breakout of the channel in either direction.
In the end, however, the reality of the damage done to an already slowing economy by the responses to COVID will set in. Even with the massive stimulus programs, many economists expect the economic damage to continue well into, if not past, 2021. The prospects of a “V-shaped recovery” appear to be losing steam, and if so, we would expect a substantial repricing of risk assets.
Performance and Trading Update
Horse Cove Partners Absolute Return Strategy composite was up 2.05% net of fees.
We continue to tread cautiously in this market. Premiums have been solid on both sides of the trade allowing us to achieve solid monthly returns while not over committing collateral.
It feels like the market is winding itself into a very tight coil, loaded with energy and getting ready to spring. It is our expectation that if the breakout of the channel described above is to the downside, it will not be quickly reversed as the FED is out of arrows and Larry Kudlow can only promise so much.
Here are the composite net returns for the Portfolio Margin accounts for the periods indicated:
Reg. T Update
Here are the composite net returns for the Reg. T accounts for the periods indicated:
IRA accounts must use Reg. T Margin which means that fewer option contracts may be written than in the “regular” accounts that use Portfolio Margin. Over time, this may also result in lower returns when compared to the “regular” accounts.
HC Enhanced Yield Update
Horse Cove Partners Update
The transfer of the control of Horse Cove Partners to Mr. Wes Jackson was official on August 1, 2020. We are working closely with Wes and his team to solidify plans to expand the business and are excited as we develop plans for the future.
The team remains in place and it is “business as usual” save a new developing vision of what Horse Cove Partners will become under new leadership.
About Horse Cove Partners LLC
Profiting from the art and science of taking risk. ®
Horse Cove Partners was founded by Sam DeKinder and Kevin Ellis in January of 2013 with the commitment to help grow the client’s assets with a highly disciplined investment strategy, replicated weekly, to extract absolute returns from the market by trading short volatility option spreads. The firm was launched after more than two years of trading experience with personal assets that began in December 2010. The firm is built on the strength of hedge fund trading expertise developed beginning in 2002.“We do not believe we are smarter than the market, nor can we time the market in any given week or month. As a result, we take an investment approach similar to an insurance company in that our investment strategy focuses on the probability of success and the management of risk. We believe that it is possible to realize positive returns through a disciplined focus on the risk of each trade with a weekly investment horizon, and accepting intelligent losses when risk events occur.”
We thank you for your continued support.
Sincerely,
Sam DeKinder, Kevin Ellis
Greg Brennan
Don Trotter
sdekinder@horsecovepartners.com
kellis@horsecovepartners.com
gbrennan@horsecovepartners.com
dtrotter@horsecovepartners.com
Horse Cove Partners LLC
1899 Powers Ferry RD SE
Suite 120
Atlanta, GA 30339
678-905-5723 main
1Net estimate on a consolidated basis of similar accounts as of 7.31.2020, which is preliminary and subject to revision. Performance estimate described herein as “YTD” are net of fees and expenses including a 2% per year management fee and 20% incentive fee and assumes investors have been invested the entire time with no withdrawals. Individual account returns may vary depending on cash flows, the time period assets are invested, and restrictions placed on the account.
This was prepared by Horse Cove Partners LLC a federally registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The oral and written communications of an adviser provide you with information about which you determine to hire or retain an adviser. Additional information about our firm is also available at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. You can view the firm’s information on this website by searching for our firm name.
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Internet communications are not secure and subject to possible data corruption, either accidentally or on purpose, and may contain viruses. The content of this message should not be construed as investment advice unless explicitly stated as such in the text of this message. Further, this message should not be construed as the solicitation of an offer to purchase or an offer to sell any securities or other financial instruments, including, without limitation, interest in any private investment managed by Horse Cove Partners LLC or any of its affiliated entities.
This material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. Strategies shown are speculative, involve a high degree of risk, and are designed for sophisticated investors.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. The information herein was obtained from third-party sources. Horse Cove does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information provided by third parties. All information is given as of the date indicated and believed to be reliable. Performance results are estimates pending a verification. The returns are based on the Investment Manager's strategy and the compilation of actual client account trades. The Horse Cove Absolute Return and IRA Return strategies seek to extract absolute returns from the market by trading short volatility option spreads. The Enhanced Yield strategy seeks to achieve a targeted return trading only puts with a high probability of success.
The strategies reflect the deduction of advisory fees and any other expenses that a client would have paid or actually paid. The S&P 500 Index is used for comparative purposes only. The volatility of an index is materially different from that of the model portfolio. The S&P 500 refers to the Standard and Poor's 500 Index which is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure the performance of the broad domestic stock market. The VIX (CBOE volatility index) is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward-looking and is calculated from both calls and puts. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge." Investors cannot invest directly in an index. An index does not charge management fees or brokerage expenses, and no such fees or expenses were deducted from the performance shown. Options trading entails a high level of risk. The models do not include the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains because options don't pay dividends. Please read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options available from the Options Clearing Corporation website: http://www.optionsclearing.com for further details.
